Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Syria. Show all posts

Wednesday, 19 April 2017

President Donald J. Trump: Making America Great Again?



Every American president tries his very best to leave a legacy before exiting the White House. This legacy could be either positive or negative depending on where you stand. Most former American presidents left legacies of helping to destabilize one country or the other. Examples of such countries are Afghanistan, Libya, Yemen, Iraq and currently Syria. When they are campaigning to be elected as president of the U.S.A., they always spell out their policies especially their foreign policy. This makes the whole world know the kind of administration they will have to deal with after the elections and one of them eventually emerges as the winner.

President Donald Trump is no exception to the above, in fact he made the whole world know that his administration’s foreign policy will be guided by the mantra “I will make America great again”. This he said he will do by not meddling in the affairs of other countries militarily. That is, he will allow countries to solve their own problems and will not help any of the factions. He said he will also make sure more jobs were created in America for American citizens to benefit. Thus, making sure that American companies who have factories in China and other countries will relocate back to America and provide jobs for the American people. These and other numerous measures President Donald Trump promised to undertake during the campaign period so as to make America great again.

But what have we seen since he assumed the reins of power? Is he on the path of making America great again or making more enemies for America? Is he also on the path of creating more tension in the Middle East and also on the Korean Peninsula? He launched a barrage of cruise missiles against the Syrian government for an alleged sarin gas attack in the Idlib province which killed many children. Will that make America great again? He also sent attack navy ships together with an aircraft carrier to be stationed in the Korean Peninsula, just to warn or deter North Korea from undertaking any new missile tests. This was a show of force and might, and he vowed to deal with the North Korean problem once and for all. And he promised to take military action against North Korea should they do anything to threaten South Korea or any of their allies in the region. North Korea responded that they were prepared for war and they will not hesitate to strike back decisively should the U.S. provoke them. Will this make America great again? Or is Trump trying to diffuse the pressure mounting on his administration as investigations are being conducted on his alleged ties with the Russians and they meddling in the U.S. elections of 2016, thus helping him defeat Hillary Clinton?  Has he also drained the swamp as he promised? Or are the neocons and the warmongers feeding him with wrong intelligence contrary to his foreign policy? Will America be great again under President Donald Trump? Is he really on the path of making America great again?

Tuesday, 11 April 2017

The Syrian Conundrum



Syria was a very peaceful country with a lively population a decade ago. Damascus, the capital city used to be one of the oldest cities in the world. In fact Syria had one of the World Heritage Sites at Palmyra with well preserved historical artifacts. All of a sudden this peaceful and lively country was thrown into a never ending confusion with some citizens calling for the stepping down of the President, Bashir Al-Assad. These protests started six years ago which later turned into a full blown civil war which has been raging on ever since. More than half a million people have lost their lives in this never ending conflict. At first all seemed to be going well for the so called moderate rebels who were being sponsored by their western friends through Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Oman with military hardware and money. Since Russia saw it as very strategic to support Assad due to her interests, the Syrian government started gaining the upper hand with the help of the Russian military and air support.
The Assad regime had to deal with rebel factions and ISIS on several fronts and this stretched his army thin, so Russian support was so welcoming and this helped the Syrian government to push the so called moderate rebels out of their controlled territory. Russia also joined the fight against ISIS in Syria and used her military base at Latakia in Syria as a launch pad for airstrikes against the terrorist organization. In 2013 the Syrian government was accused of allegedly using chemical weapons on its citizens, but Assad’s regime denied this accusation. Russia and the US then called for a destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons. These two powers had representatives on the ground to supervise and ensure that Syria’s chemical weapons were destroyed.
Fast forward to April, 2017, the Syrian government is suspected to have launched a chemical attack in Khan Shekoun in the Idlib Province killing many children. The Syrian government comes out to deny this accusation and they accept the fact that they launched an airstrike against a rebel warehouse with no knowledge of chemical weapons in it. The western biased media decide to blame the Assad government for the deaths. In the early hours of 7th April, 2017, the US launches a barrage of cruise missiles, more than 50 missiles against a Syrian airbase near Homs. Before they did that they contacted the Russians to make sure no Russian was caught in the strike. Several questions need to be answered.
Why will Assad gas his own people? Knowing very well that the international community will never forgive him for such an act, why will he do that? Is it true that the sarin gas that was the cause of the deaths of these innocent children was shipped from Libya to the Syrian rebels with the tacit approval of a former US Secretary of State? Why will the UN Security Council allow the US to take a unilateral decision to launch strikes on Syria? Is it not a breach of international law? Why was the US and her allies quick to blame Assad for the gas attack hours after it happened? Why didn’t they allow independent investigators to do their work?
The world must tread cautiously in relation to the Syrian civil war, because the exit of Assad will burn the Middle East. Isis and the various factions in the Syrian conflict will resort to fighting each other once Assad is kicked out and another Iraq and Libya will rear its ugly head in the region. The Syrian people should be allowed to choose their own leaders. There should be no meddling from any other foreign power. Syria needs peace and a political solution should be found as soon as possible to end the suffering of the Syrian people.

Tuesday, 13 September 2016

The Quest For Peace In Syria (When The Eagle and The Bear Agree)



The world witnessed a rare moment in the last few days. This was when the US and Russia agreed on a ceasefire and peace plan for Syria. This plan is supposed to gradually bring an end to the Syrian Civil War that has claimed so many lives. The whole world watched with much anticipation as the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavarov and the US Secretary of State, John Kerry met to agree on a peace plan for Syria. I had a feeling those who always prayed and hoped that these two super powers will fail again to agree on a peace plan for Syria.
It is a known fact that the Syrian President, Bashar Al Assad is being backed by the Kremlin likewise the various rebel movements notably the Free Syrian Army is also being backed by Washington. Both super powers are fighting a proxy war in Syria. But certain rebel groups such as the Al Nusra Front which is an affiliate of Al Qaeeda have to be forced to accept the ceasefire plan. In the plan the rebels have been granted the right of self defence if attacked by the Syrian Government. With ISIS also lurking around in Syria, I hope this plan will bring the various forces together to fight them and push them out of Syria. The world is watching as the two super powers have taken a bold step to ensure that they find a political solution to the Syrian Civil War. President Bashar Al Assad will definitely listen to the Russians as they have been his main backbone throughout the civil war. If not for the involvement of the Russians with their airstrikes on rebel targets, the Syrian President would have been long gone. The future of Syria is to be determined in the next few days if the ceasefire is to hold and that is if all the warring factions implement their parts in the agreement. So much blood has been spilt, women and children have borne the brunt of the carnage going on in Syria. Their attempt to flee the conflict too is being hampered by most of the countries bordering Syria refusing them entry. This has created a humanitarian crisis in the Middle East as Syria’s neighbors can’t take any more refugees with Europe being the worst affected.
The ceasefire holds for now, Bashar Al Assad has been emboldened but the opposition is wary and observing this latest initiative with caution and will be seriously monitoring the next moves of the other parties or factions involved in the civil war. Lets all hope the Eagle and the Bear continue to agree on major issues in this world. This will go a long way to reduce the tension between these two super powers in the international arena as they are both jostling to overpower each other in terms of diplomacy, intelligence and military capabilities. Don’t forget to #PrayForSyria and all the conflict zones all over the world.


Wednesday, 16 September 2015

Europe's Headache

For the past few weeks we have been seeing thousands of refugees from Syria heading towards Europe to seek asylum as they are running away from the war that has ravaged their once beautiful country, Syria. Boat loads of these Syrian refugees made the perilous journey across the Mediterranean Sea to Europe.

This action taken by the Syrians was initially met with a hostile attitude by most of the European countries they are trying to move to. They stuck to that stance until the some of the Syrians drowned in the sea with majority of the casualties being women and children. Horrifying pictures of children washed ashore on the Turkish coast were splashed across the tabloids and on the television screens and this immediately caused a serious outrage throughout the world.

Now Europe will have to bear the brunt of the thousands of Syrian refugees knocking on their door seeking asylum and safe haven from the civil war ravaging their country. Germany, Britain, France and other European countries then agreed to accept a substantial number of the refugees.

This crisis is seen as the Law of Karma at work. Europe has to bear this headache and learn from it. Several questions come to mind: Who is responsible for the rise of ISIS in Syria, Libya and Iraq? What happened to the political solution suggested by the Russians to end the civil war in Syria? Where does the rebels in Syria and ISIS get their weapons from and their source of funding? Who benefits once the Syrian President Bashar Al Assad is kicked out of power?

It seems the plan did not work in Ukraine and the Russians were able to move in fast and thwart the efforts of the 'Invisible Hands' behind the Ukrainian crisis. This plan was to install a puppet regime in Ukraine and cripple the Russian Naval fleet in Crimea but this did not work. Now the other plan was to make sure Syria had a puppet regime and with Assad kicked out, their friends in Qatar will pump gas through Syria to Turkey and then to Europe. Thus, Europe will no longer depend on Russian gas and this will greatly affect the Russian economy and bring Russia down to her knees. Now this plan also seems to have backfired with weapons falling into the wrong hands thus the emergence of ISIS.

Europe must think of a political solution to the Syrian crisis and as the Syrian president said, he will only step down when Europe is able to deal with the terrorists in his country. Right now, it seems this civil war has turned into a proxy war with the Russians moving in to support the Syrian government to fight the rebels (terrorists).

The earlier a political solution is found to this Syrian crisis, the better for Europe as the Syrian refugees have nowhere to go but to cross the sea and come to Europe. This will be one headache for Europe that even all the pain killers in the world can not cure. Some headaches can be very serious and this one is more than serious for Europe to bear.

Wednesday, 28 August 2013

The Road To Damascus

Once again, the US and Britain are deceiving the world into believing the Syrian government used chemical weapons on its people. We all know what happened in Iraq where no WMDs were found but the country was invaded. This is a tinderbox which will set the Middle East ablaze. The world is watching. Who helped Saddam Hussein to gas the Kurds and also who gave chemical weapons to Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s?The war rhetoric by top government officials in the UK and US on Syria has gotten to a high level. Its just a matter of time for the military intervention by these two powers to happen just like what happened in Iraq. The world is waiting and watching when the strikes will start. What will Assad gain from gassing his own people? We all know of the consequences of the US and Britain helping the Syrian rebels to overthrow Assad. Iraq should be a reference point. No evidence of WMDs were found in Iraq yet she was invaded. What's in for the US and Britain if they launch strikes on Assad's regime? It seems Bashir Assad was targeted to be overthrown the moment he refused to help in disbanding the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.  I also have a hunch that  Saddam Hussein's WMDs are alleged to be hidden in Syria so the so called "Coalition Forces" are on the "Road to Damascus" to make sure they find it. But i also don't support Assad nor the Syrian rebels in the entrenched positions they have taken as dialogue would have been the best solution to the Syrian Civil War. Assad will surely go very soon either into exile or by an air strike from the "Coalition Forces" which will eventually terminate his stay on this earth. I also foresee the "Road to Damascus" to be a very tortuous and dangerous one. Russia has a military base in Syria and do you think they will just sit down and watch the US and UK have a field day? We all know that this evidence the UN investigators are looking for was cooked up by the US and their collaborators just to give Bashir Al Assad a bad name and hang him. Any major intervention in Syria would surely affect the whole of the Middle East. The war hawks in both the US and UK are surely planning every detail of their military strikes in Syria. Why would the US Department of Defence authorize the sale of cluster bombs worth $641 million to Saudi Arabia? The last time i checked cluster bombs have been banned by the UN and we know where these bombs are heading to as Saudi Arabia is being used as a proxy in the Syrian Civil War. The rebels would use these bombs and later present them as evidence against the Syrian government. The UN is still in its "toothless dog" mode as they always do not conduct thorough investigations before coming out with a decision. What happened to the first UN investigation that found out that the Syrian rebels have used chemical weapons some months back? As usual, that report has been swept under the carpet as if it never happened.  We now live in a world where rebels are now seen as legitimate governments because the ruling group in a country refused to kowtow to the whims and caprices of a world super power. I guess by now, the Iranians are watching this unfolding threat of military intervention closely. The "Road to Damascus" will surely not be a walk through the park. The oldest capital city in the world, Damascus with its historical sites now lie in ruins. Lets find a political solution to the Syrian Civil War and stop escalating the conflict. God help us all.

Thursday, 13 September 2012

"Frankenstein" Goes Berserk.

There is this story of a doctor who created a human monster called "Frankenstein", which later turned out to be his worst nightmare as this monster caused more havoc in the community. In fact this monster went berserk and it was very dangerous to stay in that community as it went about terrorizing the people around. This doctor thought he could control the monster, but the monster developed a brain of its own and turned against its master. We all witnessed the so called "Arab Spring" in some parts of the Middle East and the Arab world in 2011. The countries involved were Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria. Whiles the Tunisian leader Ben Ali fled into exile, the Yemeni leader Abdullah Salleh negotiated for his safe exit into exile after he was guaranteed immunity from prosecution in the deal that was brokered. The Egyptian leader, Hosni Mubarak was also kicked out of power and made to face the full rigors of the law. But in Libya, Muamar Gaddafi was brutally murdered by the NATO and rebel forces. That was an act that was seen to be justified by the west and its Allies led by the US. Little did the US know that they had created a "Frankenstein" monster that was to unleash its fury on them one day. On September 11, 2012 the American Consulate in Benghazi was attacked by a mob who were protesting against a short film entitled "Innocence of Muslims" produced by an American Coptic Christian, Sam Bacile. This film is alleged to have insulted the Holy Prophet of Islam and it led to the attacks on the US Embassy in Cairo and Consulate in Benghazi during which the American Ambassador to Libya was killed together with three of his staff. Now the Frankenstein created by the Americans during the Libyan uprising has turned around and unleashing its fury on them. The question i would ask is that, has Frankenstein gone berserk, or can the Americans still control him. It looks like coming events cast their shadows. Muamar Gaddafi would be turning in his grave right now, for he has won a victory even in death as the Americans are being paid in equal measure what was done to him. God bless Africa and God bless us all.

Monday, 20 August 2012

Friends Today, Enemies Tomorrow.

Have you ever been in a friendship that seems to be everlasting, and all of a sudden the two best friends become sworn  enemies? When that happens all types of strategies would be employed to get rid of each other or to make one look bad. This enmity has come down to us in this our modern world, and it is happening between countries who were once good allies and fought for a common interest. The USA used to have friendly and warm relations with Iran during the 1970s when the Shah of that country was at the helm of affairs. But this relationship turned sour and cold when the Shah was overthrown by the fundamentalists led by the spiritual leader Ayatollah Khomeini. The US then fought a proxy war with Iran by propping Saddam Husein of Iraq and sending him weapons. This was the Iran/Iraq War from 1980-1988. This war ended with no clear victor. Saddam Husein was then branded an enemy by the USA when he decided to invade Kuwait. That was the biggest mistake he did. We all know what happened after that invasion. Then in the early part of the 21st century Iraq was invaded by the USA and her allies, Saddam Hussein was eventually captured and later executed. All these were done on the pretext that Saddam Hussein was having Weapons Of Mass Destruction (WMDs). But the whole world never got to know where those weapons were being kept in Iraq. In fact no WMDs have been found in Iraq up to date. The late ruler of Libya Muamar Gaddafi was once an avowed enemy of the west, he then became friendly towards them. But later events led to his country being bombarded by NATO after a rebel insurrection in the Libyan city of Bengazi. Syria is now paying dearly for refusing to do the bidding of the west in an ongoing civil war with the western powers trumpeting that Assad must leave power at all cost giving little room for any political solution. Innocent lives are being lost in a senseless war. I know for sure Iran would be the next stop for the western powers. They did it to Manuel Noriega of Panama, tried it on Fidel Castro of Cuba, but it never worked. So as the saying goes, "Beware of the Greeks when they come bearing gifts", these acts of friendship by the western powers might end up being a "Trojan Horse". We all have to be careful when entering into a friendship, because that friendship can turn into enmity tomorrow. Just be careful who you become friends with, it might later spell your doom.

Sunday, 22 July 2012

The Syrian Question.

The world is on the brink of a major conflict in the Middle East, and it seems the innocent lives being lost in this senseless conflict in Syria is being left to pass by. This Syrian  crisis has so many actors involved. For ethical and security reasons no names would be mentioned here. Some of these actors have come out openly to support one faction and the other actors are doing what they know what to do best, that is clandestinely supporting one faction with arms and ammunition. If i may ask, why is this happening now in Syria? Let me take you back to the genesis of this conflict. It has been raging on for more than a year and almost 7000 lives have been lost. If you look at the situation carefully, it seems there is a calculated plan to get rid of all leaders who have stayed for so long in power in the world. It started with the so called 'Arab Spring' (even though there is nothing like a 'Spring' season in Africa) in Tunisia, where long time leader Ben Ali was forced to flee into exile, followed by Hosni Mubarak of Egypt who was also forced to leave office, and hand over power to the powerful Egyptian military, then the time became very ripe to get rid of their one time foe and later turned ally Muamar Gaddafi of Libya who was murdered after the whole world was told by NATO that he was not a target of their aerial bombing campaigns, in which innocent people also lost their lives. Yemen and Bahrain also had their fair share of uprisings with Abdullah Salleh of Yemen relinquishing his rule by signing an agreement laced with immunity clauses. Bahrain have been able to withstand  protests for some time now. I have a hunch that Iran, Jordan, Morocco and the other countries in the Middle East with long time leaders would be on the list as the next points of call for the so called bastions of democracy. Now, we all know those behind the uprisings in the Middle East, and eventually Bashir Al Assad of Syria would be kicked out and a puppet government would be installed like what they have done in Libya, but Assad would not go without a fight. I hope Syria does not turn into another Iraq, as the situation has now turned into a full scale civil war with women and children bearing the brunt of both the Syrian government forces and the rebels. If i may ask, who is behind all these conflicts in the Middle East? First they ask you to initiate reforms, then they send spies in the form of a UN Observer Mission, they they call for regime change and thats your end.But remember that if you decide use a long spoon to sup with the devil, you must be prepared to bear the consequences when pay back time is due.

Monday, 21 May 2012

Pan Am Flight 103 Conspiracy Theories.


Pan Am Flight 103 conspiracy theories suggest a number of possible explanations for the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 on 21 December 1988. Some of the theories preceded the official investigation by Scottish police and the FBI; others arose from different interpretation of evidence presented at Libyan agent Abdelbaset al-Megrahi's 2000/2001 trial; yet others have been developed independently by individuals and organisations outside the official investigation. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command (PFLP-GC) was the first suspect, in light of a threat it issued against U.S. and Israeli interests before the bombing. The state of Iran was also in the frame very early, with its motive thought to be revenge for the July 1988 shooting down of Iran Air Flight 655 by USS Vincennes. This theory was later reinforced by Abolghasem Mesbahi, former head of Iranian intelligence operations in Europe, who stated after defecting to Germany that Iran had asked Libya and Abu Nidal, a Palestinian guerrilla leader, to carry out the attack on Pan Am 103. In his 1994 film The Maltese Double Cross, Allan Francovich suggested that rogue CIA agents were implicated in a plot that involved them turning a blind eye to a drug running operation in return for intelligence. Evidence presented at Megrahi's trial, together with concerns about the reliability of his conviction, spawned a theory that Libya was framed. Abu Nidal allegedly confessed to the bombing before his death, thereby triggering another theory, while Joe Vialls put forward his own explanation that relied on the bomb being detonated remotely. Finally, in December 1989, Patrick Haseldine suggested that the bombing was an assassination by South Africa's apartheid government of United Nations Commissioner for Namibia, Bernt Carlsson.

PFLP-GC
For many months after the bombing, the prime suspects were the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command (PFLP-GC), a Damascus-based rejectionist group led by former Syrian army captain Ahmed Jibril, sponsored by Iran. In a February 1986 press conference, Jibril warned:
"There will be no safety for any traveler on an Israeli or U.S. airliner" (Cox and Foster 1991, p28).
Secret intercepts were reported by author, David Yallop, to have recorded the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (Pasdaran) in Baalbeck, Lebanon making contact with the PFLP-GC immediately after the downing of the Iran Air Airbus. Israeli intelligence allegedly intercepted a telephone call made two days after PA 103 by Mohtashemi-Pur, Interior Minister in Tehran, to the chargé d'affaires at the Iranian embassy in Beirut, instructing the embassy to hand over the funds to Jibril and congratulating them on the success of operation 'Intekam' ('equal and just revenge'). Jibril is alleged to have received $11 million from Iran - although a banking audit trail to confirm the payment has never been presented.
Jibril's right hand man, Hafez Dalkamoni, set up a PFLP-GC cell which was active in the Frankfurt and Neuss areas of West Germany in October 1988, two months before PA 103. During what Germany's internal security service, the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz (BfV), called Operation Herbstlaub (Operation "Autumn Leaves"), the BfV kept cell members under strict surveillance. The plotters prepared a number of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) hidden inside household electronic equipment. They discussed a planned operation in coded calls to Cyprus and Damascus: oranges and apples stood for detonating devices; medicine and pasta for Semtex explosive; and, auntie for the bomb carrier. One operative had been recorded as saying: "auntie should get off, but should leave the suitcase on the bus" (Duffy and Emerson 1990). The PFLP-GC cell had an experienced bomb-maker, Jordanian Marwan Khreesat, to assist them. Khreesat made at least one IED inside a single-speaker Toshiba Bombeat 453 radio cassette recorder, similar to the twin speaker model RT-SF 16 Bombeat that was used to blow up PA 103. However, unlike the Lockerbie bomb with its sophisticated timer, Khreesat's IEDs contained a barometric pressure device that triggers a simple timer with a range of up to 45 minutes before detonation.
Unbeknown to the PFLP-GC cell, its bomb-maker Khreesat was a Jordanian intelligence service (GID) agent and reported on the cell's activities to the GID, who relayed the information to Western intelligence and to the BfV. The Jordanians encouraged Khreesat to make the bombs but instructed him to ensure they were ineffective and would not explode. (A German police technician would however be killed, in April 1989, when trying to disarm one of Khreesat's IEDs). Through Khreesat and the GID, the Germans learned that the cell was surveying a number of targets, including Iberia Flight 888 from Madrid to Tel Aviv via Barcelona, chosen because the bomb-courier could disembark without baggage at Barcelona leaving the barometric trigger to activate the IED on the next leg of the journey. The date chosen, Khreesat reportedly told his handlers, was 30 October 1988. He also told them that two members of the cell had been to Frankfurt airport to pick up Pan Am timetables.
Acting upon this intelligence, the German secret police moved in to arrest the PFLP-GC cell on 26 October, raiding 14 apartments and arresting 17 men, fearing that to keep them under surveillance much longer was to risk losing control of the situation. Two cell members are known to have escaped arrest including Abu Elias, a resident of Sweden who, according to Prime Time Live (ABC News November 1989), was an expert in bombs sent to Germany to check on Khreesat's devices because of suspicions raised by Ahmed Jibril. Four IEDs were recovered, but Khreesat stated later that a fifth device had been taken away by Dalkamoni before the raid, and was never recovered. The link to PA 103 was further strengthened when Khreesat told investigators that, before joining the cell in Germany, he had bought five Toshiba Bombeat cassette radios from a smugglers' village in Syria close to the border with Lebanon, and made practice IEDs out of them in Jibril's training camp 20 km (12 mi) away. The bombs were inspected by Abu Elias, who declared them to be good work. What became of these devices is not known. Some journalists such as Private Eye's Paul Foot and a PA 103 relative, Dr Jim Swire, believed that it was too stark a coincidence for a Toshiba cassette radio IED to have downed PA 103 just eight weeks after the arrest of the PFLP-GC cell in FrankfurtIndeed, Scottish police actually wrote up an arrest warrant for Marwan Khreesat in the spring of 1989, but were persuaded by the FBI not to issue it because of his value as an intelligence source. In the following spring, King Hussein of Jordan arranged for Khreesat to be interviewed by FBI agent, Edward Marshman, and the former head of the FBI's forensic lab, Thomas Thurman, to whom he described in detail the bombs he had built. In the 1994 documentary film Maltese Double Cross, the author David Yallop speculated that Libyan and Iranian-paid agents may have worked on the bombing together; or, that one group handed the job over to a second group upon the arrest of the PFLP-GC cell members. The former CIA head of counter-terrorism, Vincent Cannistraro, who previously worked on the PA 103 investigation, was interviewed in the film and said he believed the PFLP-GC planned the attack at the behest of the Iranian government, then sub-contracted it to Libyan intelligence after October 1988, because the arrests in Germany meant the PFLP-GC was unable to complete the operation. Other supporters of this theory believed that whoever paid for the bombing arranged two parallel operations intended to ensure that at least one would succeed; or, that Jibril's cell in Germany was a red herring designed to attract the attention of the intelligence services, while the real bombers worked quietly elsewhere.
Iran
A number of journalists considered that the Iranian revenge motive (retaliation for the shooting down of the Iran Air Airbus by USS Vincennes) was prematurely dismissed by investigators. They drew attention to a comment by former British prime minister Margaret Thatcher in her 1993 memoirs, where she seemed to discount the Libya revenge motive (for the 1986 bombing of Tripoli and Benghazi by the United States air force):
"It turned out to be a more decisive blow against Libyan-sponsored terrorism than I could ever have imagined. ...There were revenge killings of British hostages organized by Libya, which I bitterly regretted. But the much-vaunted Libyan counter attack did not and could not take place... There was a marked decline in Libyan-sponsored terrorism in succeeding years" (Thatcher 1993, pp448-9).
Additionally, Abolghasem Mesbahi, former head of Iranian intelligence in Europe, eventually defected and "told [German] investigators that Iran had asked Libya and Abu Nidal, a Palestinian guerrilla leader, to carry out the attack on Pan Am 103." The US Defense Intelligence Agency alleges that Ali Akbar Mohtashamipur (Ayatollah Mohtashemi), a member of the Iranian government, paid US$ 10 million for the bombing:
Ayatollah Mohtashemi: (...) and was the one who paid the same amount to bomb Pan Am Flight 103 in retaliation for the US shoot-down of the Iranian Airbus.
Part of report, which is dated 1989-09-24, cites information acquired at Ft. Meade, MD:
The mission was to blow up a Pan Am flight that was to be almost entirely booked by US military personnel on Christmas leave. The flight was supposed to be a direct flight from Frankfurt, GE, to New York, not Pan Am flight 103 which was routed through London, UK. The suitcase containing the bomb was labeled with the name of one of the US passengers on the plane and was inadvertently placed on the wrong plane possibly by airport ground crew members in Frankfurt. The terrorist who last handled the bomb was not a passenger on the flight.
and
The bomb was designed by Mu'Ay Al-Din ((Mughanniya)), a Lebanese national who lives in IR and who is supposedly Iran's expert on aircraft bombing and high-jacking operations. The bomb was constructed in LY and then shipped to GE for placement on the aircraft (NFI).
CIA drug smuggling
This theory suggests that U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) agents had set up a protected drug route from Europe to the United States—allegedly called Operation Corea—that allowed Syrian drug dealers, led by Monzer al-Kassar (who was involved with Oliver North in the Iran-Contra scandal) to ship heroin to the U.S. using Pan Am flights, in exchange for intelligence on Palestinian groups holding hostages in Syria. The CIA allegedly protected the suitcases containing the drugs and made sure they were not searched. On the day of the bombing, as the theory goes, terrorists exchanged suitcases: one with drugs for one with a bomb.
Time introduced another version of this theory, claiming that the American intelligence officers on PA 103 – Matthew Gannon and Maj. Charles McKee – had found out about the drug operation, and were headed to Washington to raise their concerns about its impact on their hostage rescue plans.
Juval Aviv introduced a variation of this story in October 1989. Aviv was the owner of Interfor Inc, a private investigation company based on Madison Avenue, New York. Aviv claimed to be a former Mossad officer who led the Operation Wrath of God team that assassinated members of Black September who were believed to have been responsible for the Munich Massacre in 1972. According to his theory, the CIA knew in advance that the baggage exchange would take place, but let it happen anyway, because the protected drugs route was a rogue operation, and the American intelligence officers on PA 103 – Matthew Gannon and Maj. Charles McKee – had found out about it, and were on their way to Washington to tell their superiors.
After PA 103, Aviv was employed by Pan Am as their lead investigator for the bombing. He submitted a report (the Interfor report) in October 1989, blaming the bombing on a CIA-protected drugs route (Barrons December 17, 1989). This scenario provided Pan Am with a credible defense against claims for compensation by relatives of victims, since, if the U.S. government had helped the bomb bypass Pan Am's security, the airline could hardly have been held liable. The Interfor report alleged inter alia that Khalid Jafaar, a Lebanese-American passenger with links to Hezbollah, had unwittingly brought the bomb on board thinking he was carrying drugs on behalf of Syrian drug dealers he supposedly worked for. However, the New York court, which heard the civil case lodged by the U.S. relatives, rejected the Interfor allegations for lack of evidence. Aviv was never interviewed by either the Scottish police or the FBI in connection with PA 103. The theory of the CIA-protected suitcase was detailed as well in Patrick Pesnot's Rendez-vous avec X radio program on June 1998. In 1990 the protected suitcase theory was given a new lease of life by Lester Coleman in his book Trail of the Octopus. Coleman was a former journalist-turned-intelligence agent working with the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) while employed by Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) in Cyprus. Coleman claimed to have seen Khalid Jafaar in the DEA office in Nicosia, Cyprus once again implying that Jafaar was a drugs mule, but this time for the DEA instead of Syrian drug dealers. In 1997, Coleman pleaded guilty to five counts of perjury in a Federal court after admitting that he submitted a false testimony in a civil litigation brought on behalf of the families of passengers killed in the bombing. Coleman's theory gained impetus when British journalist Paul Foot wrote a glowing review of Coleman's book for the London Review of Books. But on March 31, 2004—four months before his death—Foot reverted to the orthodox Iran/PFLP-GC theory in an article he wrote for The Guardian entitled "Lockerbie's dirty secret".The previously mentioned 1994 documentary film The Maltese Double Cross – Lockerbie, which included interviews with Lester Coleman and Juval Aviv, seemed to favour a hybrid version embracing both the CIA-protected suitcase and the drugs mule versions of the theory. Shortly after the film was broadcast by Channel 4 television on 11 May 1995, Aviv was indicted on fraud charges. Aviv was quick to claim that these were trumped-up charges, and in due course they were dropped. The film can be viewed on the internet here by scrolling down to Allan Francovich - The Maltese Double Cross.
Alleged framing of Libya
This conspiracy theory is based on the premise that key evidence presented at the trial (e.g. timer fragment, parts from a specific radio cassette model, clothing bought in Malta, bomb suitcase originating at Luqa Airport) could have been fabricated by the U.S. and Britain for the "political" purpose of incriminating Libya.
Recent Libyan history
Muammar al-Gaddafi's regime in Libya had a long and well-documented history of support for rebel and paramilitary groups. During the 1970s and 1980s, Gaddafi supplied large quantities of Libyan weapons and explosives to the Provisional Irish Republican Army. Other incidents that have been attributed to Libya are not so clear cut:
●      The 1984 murder of police constable Yvonne Fletcher outside the Libyan embassy in London was blamed on Libya and led to a long-term rupture of diplomatic relations. No prosecution has taken place, but Libya has paid compensation to WPC Fletcher's family and recently allowed Scotland Yard to interview suspects in that country. US president Ronald Reagan was convinced that Libya was responsible for the 1986 Berlin discotheque bombing – in which two American servicemen were killed and another 50 injured – and, in retaliation, ordered the bombing of Tripoli in Operation El Dorado Canyon. In 2001, a Libyan and two Palestinians were convicted and imprisoned by Berlin's Supreme Court, and in 2004 Gaddafi agreed to pay $35 million in compensation to the non-American victims of the Berlin bombing.
●      A French court convicted six Libyans nationals (some members of Libyan Intelligence) in absentia of the 1989 bombing of French UTA Flight 772. The bomb bore remarkable similarities to the one that brought down Pan Am 103, since it was also consisted of PETN (Semtex) carried in a Samsonite suitcase and detonated by a timing device. France at the time supported Libya's neighbour Chad in a border dispute. A Paris court convicted six Libyan. With remarkable parallels to the Lockerbie trial, the Paris court heard that UTA Flight 772 was brought down by a bomb triggered by a sophisticated timing device. Libya supplied the Provisional Irish Republican Army (PIRA) with tonnes of Semtex — amongst other weapons. See also Provisional IRA arms importation#Libyan arms.
At the end of the Pan Am Flight 103 bombing trial an international observer appointed by the United Nations, Hans Köchler, called the verdict a "spectacular miscarriage of justice". Even though Libya never formally admitted responsibility for Pan Am Flight 103 or UTA Flight 772, Libya "accepted responsibility for the actions of its officials" and agreed to pay compensation to the relatives of the victims. In October 2008 Libya paid $1.5 billion into a fund which will be used to compensate relatives of the
  1. Lockerbie bombing victims with the remaining 20% of the sum agreed in 2003 ($2.7 billion);
  2. American victims of the 1986 Berlin discotheque bombing;
  3. American victims of the 1989 UTA Flight 772 bombing; and,
  4. Libyan victims of the 1986 US bombing of Tripoli and Benghazi. 
Lord Advocate's comment
In an address to a conference of law officers in August 2001 (seven months after the PA 103 verdict) the Scottish Lord Advocate, Lord Boyd, rejected any suggestion that Libya had been framed and denied that this was a politically driven prosecution, instead blaming conspiracy theorists for such allegations:
"Conspiracy theorists have alleged that the investigators' move away from an interest in the PFLP-GC was prompted by political interference following a re-alignment of interests in the Middle East. Specifically it is said that it suited Britain and the United States to exonerate Syria and others such as Iran who might be associated with her and to blame Libya, a country which we know trained the IRA. Accordingly, evidence was 'found' which implicated Libya. This is best answered by looking at the evidence."
The Lord Advocate went on to list the various pieces of evidence found to prove that the PA 103 investigators' interest in Libya was "as a result of the evidence which was discovered and not as a result of any political interference in the investigation". He reiterated: "There is no evidence whatsoever to suggest that there was political interference. The investigation was evidence-led." Lord Boyd dealt with each piece of evidence, as follows:
●      Toshiba radio cassette fragment:
"evidence was obtained from Toshiba [by DERA's Alan Feraday] which showed that during October 1988 20,000 black Toshiba RT-SF 16 radio cassettes, the type used in the Pan Am bomb, were shipped to Libya. Of the total world-wide sales of that model 76% were sold to the General Electric Company's subsidiary in Libya, whose chairman was Said Rashid.[information added]"
●      Mebo timer fragment:
"In June 1990, with the assistance ultimately of the CIA and FBI, Alan Feraday of the Explosives Laboratory was able to identify the fragment as identical to circuitry from an MST-13 timer. It was already known to the CIA from an example seized in Togo in 1986 and photographed by them in Senegal in 1988. That took investigators to the firm of Mebo in Zurich. It was discovered that these timers had been manufactured to the order of two Libyans Ezzadin Hinshin, at the time director of the Central Security Organisation of the Libyan External Security Organisation and Said Rashid, then head of the Operations Administration of the ESO."
●      Clothing material:
"In September 1989 Tony Gauci, the shopkeeper, was interviewed by Scottish police officers. He convincingly identified a range of clothing which he had sold to a man sometime before Christmas 1988. Among the items he remembered selling were two pairs of Yorkie trousers, two pairs of striped pyjamas, a tweed jacket, a blue babygro, two slalom shirts collar size 16 and a half, two cardigans, one brown and one blue and an umbrella. He described the man, and subsequently identified him as Megrahi. More importantly at the time he was in no doubt that he was a Libyan."
Reliance on forensic science
Warning against over-reliance upon forensic science to secure convictions, one of Britain's foremost criminal lawyers, Michael Mansfield QC, in the BBC Scotland Frontline Scotland TV programme Silence over Lockerbie, broadcast on 14 October 1997, said he wanted to make just one point:
"Forensic science is not immutable. They're not written in tablets of stone, and the biggest mistake that anyone can make—public, expert or anyone else alike—is to believe that forensic science is somehow beyond reproach: it is not! The biggest miscarriages of justice in the United Kingdom, many of them emanate from cases in which forensic science has been shown to be wrong. And the moment a forensic scientist or anyone else says: 'I am sure this marries up with that' I get worried."
A number of news media also investigated the bombing and the various theories that were put forward to explain it. One news team headed by Pierre Salinger accused the prosecution of disinformation, and of attempting to steer the investigation toward Libya.
Iran and the London angle
Towards the end of the bombing trial, lawyers for Megrahi argued that the PA 103 bomb could have started its journey at Heathrow, rather than at Luqa Airport in Malta. The Boeing 747 that was destined to carry the 259 passengers and crew on the London-New York leg had arrived from San Francisco at noon on 21 December 1988, and stood unguarded on the tarmac for much of the period before PA 103's passengers began to board the aircraft after 17:00 (scheduled departure 18:00). The Iran Air terminal in Heathrow was adjacent to the Pan Am terminal, and the two airlines shared tarmac space. The lawyers invoked the 1990 Scottish Fatal Accident Inquiry and the evidence it heard that the baggage container AVE 4041, into which the bomb suitcase had been loaded, was left unsupervised at Heathrow for about forty minutes that afternoon.
Libya and Abu Nidal
Abu Nidal was widely regarded as the most ruthless international terrorist until that mantle was assumed by Osama bin Laden. Nidal (aka Sabri al-Banna) was reported to have died in a shoot-out in Baghdad on 16 August 2002. A former senior member of his group, Atef Abu Bakr, told journalists that shortly before his death Abu Nidal had confided to Bakr that he had orchestrated the PA 103 bombing. After settling in Tripoli in 1985, Nidal and the Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi allegedly became close, Gaddafi sharing what The Sunday Times called "Abu Nidal's dangerous combination of an inferiority complex mixed with the belief that he was a man of destiny." According to Atef Abu Bakr, Gaddafi asked Nidal to coordinate with the head of Libyan intelligence, Abdullah al-Senussi, an attack on the U.S. in retaliation for the 1986 bombing of Benghazi and Tripoli. Nidal then organized the hijacking of Pan Am Flight 73 in Karachi on September 5, 1986 killing 22 passengers and wounding dozens of others. In August 1987, Abu Nidal allegedly tried again, this time using an unwitting bomb mule to carry a device on board a flight from Belgrade (airline unknown), but the bomb failed to explode. For PA 103, Senussi allegedly told Nidal to supply the bomb, and Libyan intelligence would arrange for it to be put on a flight. No evidence has been produced in support of these theories.
Radio detonation
According to conspiracy theorist and self-styled private investigator Joe Vialls, who died in July 2005, the bomb on PA 103 was triggered not by a simple timing device, but by a more complex technique of radio detonation. The Vialls theory relies on the assumption that the aircraft was handed over to a different air traffic control center when it passed over the Dean Cross navigational beacon, requiring it to communicate on one of the 22 frequencies used by Shanwick Oceanic Control. Maid of the Seas would then have been flying at about 500 mph between Dean Cross beacon and where it crashed on the town of Lockerbie, an overall distance of 30 miles (48 km) representing a point-to-point flight time of barely four minutes. As PA 103 passed overhead the Dean Cross beacon, a light would have flashed on in the cockpit alerting the pilots to change frequency in order to obtain permission for the Atlantic crossing from Shanwick Oceanic Control at Prestwick, ScotlandUsing standard reaction times, according to Vialls, it would have taken between three and five minutes for the crew to be ready to communicate on the new frequency. In its PA 103 report, the Air Accident Investigation Branch (AAIB) stated:
"At 18.58 hrs the aircraft established two-way radio contact with Shanwick Oceanic Control on frequency 123.95 MHz. At 19.02:44 hrs the clearance delivery officer at Shanwick transmitted to the aircraft its oceanic route clearance. The aircraft did not acknowledge this message and made no subsequent transmission." The AAIB report continued: "The cockpit voice recorder tape was listened to for its full duration and there was no indication of anything abnormal with the aircraft, or unusual crew behaviour. The tape record ended, at 19.02:50 hrs ± 1 second, with a sudden loud sound on the cockpit area microphone channel followed almost immediately by the cessation of recording whilst the crew were copying their transatlantic clearance from Shanwick ATC."
The Vialls radio detonation theory puts forward two different triggering mechanisms:
●      A remotely controlled bomb in the aircraft that was triggered by a radio signal sent from outside the aircraft
●      A sophisticated device onboard the aircraft that monitored multiple variables including time and the use of specific air-traffic control frequencies by the aircraft.
Vialls cited the following example of how the Israelis used the technique of radio detonation: In the late 1980s, Israeli intelligence managed to obtain the cellular phone of Yahya Ayyash by fooling him into believing that his phone had a fault; the phone was booby-trapped with explosives when he brought it in for repairs, then subsequently detonated by a signal sent over the Israeli-controlled mobile phone network when he answered it. According to Vialls, the inside of a Boeing 747 is a Faraday cage, which would ensure that secondary emissions—from the captain's radio message to Shanwick Oceanic Control, for example—would be sufficient to activate the radio trigger of the bomb. Thus, the PA 103 bomb could have been triggered by an internally generated command radio signal transmitted to or received from Shanwick. However, Vialls believed that the extent of the damage caused to the aircraft meant that the bomb was probably positioned close to the fuselage, rather than—as the prosecution maintained at the trial—being wrapped in clothing, packed in a suitcase and loaded inside a baggage container. Vialls himself blamed the Israeli Mossad for the PA 103 bombing. This fitted with the general theme of Vialls's investigations: he blamed Israel and Mossad for a variety of international disasters and events, including the 2004 Asian Tsunami and the death of Diana, Princess of Wales.
South-West Africa (Namibia)
Reuters: S. Africa Minister Denies Knowing of Lockerbie Bomb
According to another theory, suggested by UK's Patrick Haseldine, apartheid South Africa was responsible for the sabotage of Pan Am Flight 103. The theory is rooted in an allegation made in the film the The Maltese Double Cross and by Die Zeit that the United States government knew of the bomb and warned staff from its embassies in Helsinki and Moscow, as well as a high-level South African delegation, to avoid the flight. Someone allegedly contacted the US embassy in Helsinki, Finland 16 days before the bombing, warning of a bomb on a Pan Am aircraft departing Frankfurt for the US; none of the staff at the Moscow embassy took the flight, despite it being a popular route for them over Christmas. The allegation prompted a strong statement in November 1994 from the private secretary of Pik Botha, then South African Foreign Minister, stating that "Had he known of the bomb, no force on earth would have stopped him from seeing to it that flight 103, with its deadly cargo, would not have left the airport."
Review by American RadioWorks
In a special pre-trial report by American RadioWorks, the strengths and weaknesses of the case against Libya were explored. The report also examined in detail the evidence for and against the other main suspects in the first five alternative theories of this article. No evidence was offered in the report against either the radio detonation or the South-West Africa (Namibia) theory.